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Catégorie :Category: nCreator TI-Nspire
Auteur Author: zampa04
Type : Classeur 3.0.1
Page(s) : 1
Taille Size: 3.96 Ko KB
Mis en ligne Uploaded: 13/05/2025 - 13:08:32
Mis à jour Updated: 13/05/2025 - 13:14:50
Uploadeur Uploader: zampa04 (Profil)
Téléchargements Downloads: 4
Visibilité Visibility: Archive publique
Shortlink : https://tipla.net/a4642745
Type : Classeur 3.0.1
Page(s) : 1
Taille Size: 3.96 Ko KB
Mis en ligne Uploaded: 13/05/2025 - 13:08:32
Mis à jour Updated: 13/05/2025 - 13:14:50
Uploadeur Uploader: zampa04 (Profil)
Téléchargements Downloads: 4
Visibilité Visibility: Archive publique
Shortlink : https://tipla.net/a4642745
Description
Fichier Nspire généré sur TI-Planet.org.
Compatible OS 3.0 et ultérieurs.
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Below is the full set of calculations, all expressed in USD millions unless stated otherwise. 1 | Revenue CAGR 2020-24 2020 2024 4-yr CAGR Total sales 4 500 5 400 + 4.66 % p.a. Composite sales (given) 800 (= 2 400 ÷ 3) 2 400 + 31.6 % p.a. Aluminum sales 3 700 3 000 - 5.11 % p.a. 2 | Aluminum EBITDA-margin erosion 2020 2024 Composite EBITDA (30 % margin) 240 720 Aluminum EBITDA (total Composite) 570 144 Aluminum revenue 3 700 3 000 Aluminum EBITDA / Sales 15.4 % 4.8 % Change 202024: 10.6 pp . 3 | Market multiples at 1 Jan 2025 Shares = 237 m | Price = $24.6 Market cap 237 m × 24.6 = 5 830 m Net debt (31 Dec 24) 823 m Enterprise value (EV) 5 830 + 823 = 6 653 m 2024 EBITDA 864 m EV / EBITDA 2024A 7.70 × 2024 Net income 415 m P/E 2024A 5 830 / 415 = 14.1 × (EPS = 1.75 $) 4 | If Aluminum had kept its 2020 margin in 2024 Protected Aluminum EBITDA = 3 000 × 15.4 % = 462 Composite EBITDA = 720 Group EBITDA = 1 182 EV = 1 182 × 7.70 = 9 103 Equity = 9 103 823 = 8 280 Share price = 8 280 / 237 = $ 34.9 (vs $ 24.6) 5 | Perpetual growth rate that reconciles the DCF 2026E FCF (after capex & WCR) = H 305 EV (market-implied) = 6 653 Discount rate r = 5.5 % g = r ;-; frac{text{FCF}_{26}}{EV}= 5.5% ;-; frac{305}{6,653}= boxed{0.9% text{ per year}} (Terminal FCF assumed flat at the 2026 level.) 6 | Shareholders equity at 31 Dec 2026 2025E 2026E EBIT 719 837 Interest (5 % on opening net debt) 41 36 Net income (30 % tax) 474.5 560.5 Dividend (149) (161) text{Equity}_{26}= 1,967 + 474.5 - 149 + 560.5 - 161= boxed{H 2 692 m} 7 | Consistency check Cumulative NI Dividends 2025-26 = (474.5 + 560.5) (149 + 161) = + 726 m Change in equity 1 967 2 692 = + 725 m (rounding) 8 | 40 % tariff on Chinese inputs (2025E) 2025 COGS = 5 751 1 754 = 3 997 Chinese share (30 %) = 1 199 Tariff 40 % Ò 480 m Omega passes on 50 % absorbs 240 m Ò EBITDA 2025E falls by 240 m. 9 | Perpetual impact on share price After-tax cash loss = 240 × 70 % = 168 m PV (perpetuity, r = 5.5 %, g = 0.9 %) PV = frac{168}{0.055 - 0.009} = -3 664 Per share: 3 664 / 237 H $ 15.5 10 | If the tariff ends on 1 Jan 2030 (5-year hit) PV of 5-year annuity: PV = -168 times frac{1 - (1+0.055)^{-5}}{0.055} = -717 Per share: 717 / 237 H $ 3.0 (Direct-formula bonus above.) 11 | Sale of the Aluminum division for $ 1 500 m (1 Jan 2025) Aluminum EBITDA 2024 = 144 Continuing EBITDA = 720 EV (same 7.70 ×) = 7.70 × 720 = 5 544 New net cash = 823 + 1 500 = + 677 Equity = 5 544 + 677 = 6 221 Share price = 6 221 / 237 = $ 26.3 Take-aways # Key number 1 Total CAGR +4.66 %, Al CAGR -5.11 % 2 Aluminum margin 15.4 % 4.8 % 3 EV/EBITDA = 7.70 ×, P/E = 14.1 × 4 No-competition price H $ 34.9 5 Perpetual g H 0.9 % 6 Equity 31 Dec 26 H 2.69 bn 8 Tariff cost 480 m EBITDA -240 m 9 Per-share hit (perpetual) -$ 15.5 10 5-yr hit -$ 3.0 11 Post-sale price $ 26.3 Let me know if youd like any step clarified or re-checked in more depth! Made with nCreator - tiplanet.org
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Compatible OS 3.0 et ultérieurs.
<<
Below is the full set of calculations, all expressed in USD millions unless stated otherwise. 1 | Revenue CAGR 2020-24 2020 2024 4-yr CAGR Total sales 4 500 5 400 + 4.66 % p.a. Composite sales (given) 800 (= 2 400 ÷ 3) 2 400 + 31.6 % p.a. Aluminum sales 3 700 3 000 - 5.11 % p.a. 2 | Aluminum EBITDA-margin erosion 2020 2024 Composite EBITDA (30 % margin) 240 720 Aluminum EBITDA (total Composite) 570 144 Aluminum revenue 3 700 3 000 Aluminum EBITDA / Sales 15.4 % 4.8 % Change 202024: 10.6 pp . 3 | Market multiples at 1 Jan 2025 Shares = 237 m | Price = $24.6 Market cap 237 m × 24.6 = 5 830 m Net debt (31 Dec 24) 823 m Enterprise value (EV) 5 830 + 823 = 6 653 m 2024 EBITDA 864 m EV / EBITDA 2024A 7.70 × 2024 Net income 415 m P/E 2024A 5 830 / 415 = 14.1 × (EPS = 1.75 $) 4 | If Aluminum had kept its 2020 margin in 2024 Protected Aluminum EBITDA = 3 000 × 15.4 % = 462 Composite EBITDA = 720 Group EBITDA = 1 182 EV = 1 182 × 7.70 = 9 103 Equity = 9 103 823 = 8 280 Share price = 8 280 / 237 = $ 34.9 (vs $ 24.6) 5 | Perpetual growth rate that reconciles the DCF 2026E FCF (after capex & WCR) = H 305 EV (market-implied) = 6 653 Discount rate r = 5.5 % g = r ;-; frac{text{FCF}_{26}}{EV}= 5.5% ;-; frac{305}{6,653}= boxed{0.9% text{ per year}} (Terminal FCF assumed flat at the 2026 level.) 6 | Shareholders equity at 31 Dec 2026 2025E 2026E EBIT 719 837 Interest (5 % on opening net debt) 41 36 Net income (30 % tax) 474.5 560.5 Dividend (149) (161) text{Equity}_{26}= 1,967 + 474.5 - 149 + 560.5 - 161= boxed{H 2 692 m} 7 | Consistency check Cumulative NI Dividends 2025-26 = (474.5 + 560.5) (149 + 161) = + 726 m Change in equity 1 967 2 692 = + 725 m (rounding) 8 | 40 % tariff on Chinese inputs (2025E) 2025 COGS = 5 751 1 754 = 3 997 Chinese share (30 %) = 1 199 Tariff 40 % Ò 480 m Omega passes on 50 % absorbs 240 m Ò EBITDA 2025E falls by 240 m. 9 | Perpetual impact on share price After-tax cash loss = 240 × 70 % = 168 m PV (perpetuity, r = 5.5 %, g = 0.9 %) PV = frac{168}{0.055 - 0.009} = -3 664 Per share: 3 664 / 237 H $ 15.5 10 | If the tariff ends on 1 Jan 2030 (5-year hit) PV of 5-year annuity: PV = -168 times frac{1 - (1+0.055)^{-5}}{0.055} = -717 Per share: 717 / 237 H $ 3.0 (Direct-formula bonus above.) 11 | Sale of the Aluminum division for $ 1 500 m (1 Jan 2025) Aluminum EBITDA 2024 = 144 Continuing EBITDA = 720 EV (same 7.70 ×) = 7.70 × 720 = 5 544 New net cash = 823 + 1 500 = + 677 Equity = 5 544 + 677 = 6 221 Share price = 6 221 / 237 = $ 26.3 Take-aways # Key number 1 Total CAGR +4.66 %, Al CAGR -5.11 % 2 Aluminum margin 15.4 % 4.8 % 3 EV/EBITDA = 7.70 ×, P/E = 14.1 × 4 No-competition price H $ 34.9 5 Perpetual g H 0.9 % 6 Equity 31 Dec 26 H 2.69 bn 8 Tariff cost 480 m EBITDA -240 m 9 Per-share hit (perpetual) -$ 15.5 10 5-yr hit -$ 3.0 11 Post-sale price $ 26.3 Let me know if youd like any step clarified or re-checked in more depth! Made with nCreator - tiplanet.org
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